Extreme crime threatens business activities, employees, and property. It is critical to understand the criminal hot-spots and to prepare for the possibility of escalating violence in areas with known high crime.

Crime is increasing globally, in every region, and in many cases the authorities are overwhelmed and under prepared to deal with the violence.

Latin America and the Caribbean

The most dangerous countries in the region are El Salvador, Venezuela, Honduras, Mexico, and Haiti.

El Salvador is well known for its criminal gangs, including the MS-13. The country has the highest murder rate in the world, thanks largely to its history of poverty, civil war, porous borders, and its transit routes from South America to North America. Additionally, the government has few resources to fight the gangs.

Venezuela’s poverty and years of collusion between the government and drug traffickers has contributed to the violent crime in Venezuela. The country currently is experiencing high rates of murder, violent crime, robbery and kidnapping, and there is no will by the government to stop the activity.

The very high murder and crime rate in Honduras is closely linked to drug activity in the country. Honduras has long acted as a secure transit route from South America to North America, and drug gangs also engage in murder, extortion, human trafficking and other criminal activities. Political will to stop the criminal activity is non-existent and politicians are likely complicit in the drug trade. This is exemplified by the sentencing of the brother of the former president to life in prison for trafficking.

Mexico’s border with the United States has made it one of the most appealing jurisdictions for criminal gangs linked to drug trafficking. The fight for hegemony among the gangs, and the effort by the government to quash cartel activity has increased violence.  The cartels have become increasingly vicious, and the gangs permeate – and impact – the economy and business in the country.

Gang violence has turned Haiti into a failed state. The country, which is the poorest in the Western Hemisphere, is almost completely controlled by gangs, which have coopted the security forces and the government, allowing them full rein over the country. Businessmen report a complete lack of ability to move products, meet with potential customers, keep their employees safe, or conduct any kind of business.

While these countries are most often cited for violence, the rest of the region is also experiencing increasing crime rates. Already this year, the Department of State has cautioned visitors about visiting the Bahamas and Jamaica, after each country suffered from unusually high murder rates. The Bahamas saw 18 murders in January, and Jamaica’s warning came after 36 murders the same month.

Chile, historically one of the least dangerous countries in the region, has reported a 32% increase in murders, rapes, and gun violence. Uruguay, also considered safe and stable, has become the latest stop for drug traffickers, and has reported a 25% increase in murders in 2023.

Europe

Outside of Russia and Ukraine, Europe is largely considered safe for both business and pleasure.

However, there are some disturbing trends in that region as well.

Italy continues to house both the infamous Cosa Nostra in Sicily and ‘Ndrangheta of Calabria. ‘Ndrangheta controls approximately 97 percent of the cocaine trade in Europe, according to Italy’s anti-drug unit, through the Port of Gioia Tauro, which it controls. Organized crime in Italy recently benefitted from the refugee crisis, which increased human smuggling by the groups.

Even traditionally calm Sweden is experiencing an upsurge of violence. Sweden has a history of gang violence, and statistics from 2023 suggest that violence is increasing. The country reported 290 shootings, 400 arrests for firearms charges, and 100 arrests for crimes related to explosives.

Additionally, the Ukraine war is also contributing to higher criminal activity in border areas, which could spread as the economic devastation and refugee crisis continues.

Africa

Poverty, corruption, civil war, porous borders, terrorism, gangs, and drug trafficking have impacted several African countries.

The US Department of State advises against any travel to Burkina Faso.

The advisory notes, “Terrorist groups continue plotting attacks in Burkina Faso. Terrorists may conduct attacks anywhere with little or no warning. Targets could include hotels, restaurants, police stations, customs offices, areas at or near mining sites, places of worship, military posts, and schools.

Kidnapping and hostage taking is a threat throughout the country. On May 10, 2019 a hostage rescue operation freed four international hostages that had been kidnapped in Burkina Faso and in neighboring Benin.

The Government of Burkina Faso has maintained a state of emergency in the entire East and Sahel regions, the provinces of Kossi and Sourou in the Boucle de Mouhoun region, the province of Kenedougou in the Hauts Bassins region, the province of Loroum in the North region, and the province of Koulpelogo in the Center-East region.”

Chad is saddled with poverty, corruption, and terrorism. Boko Haram, an Islamic terrorist group, engages in a wide variety of criminal activities including property attacks, smuggling, kidnapping, extortion, and homicide.

Heavy, unchecked drug trafficking has made Guinea-Bissau unstable and has “undermined governance” in the country. Essentially, there are no checks on gang activity in the country.

Cameroon, Guinea, Mali, Ethiopia, and the Central African Republic are also experiencing high crime rates with little government control.

Middle East and North Africa

The region is fraught with terrorism, poverty, civil war, violence, and institutions unprepared to – or uninterested in – addressing the problems.
That could increase with the Israel – Hamas war, as regional players become more involved.

Afghanistan is often-cited as one of the most dangerous countries in the region. Political instability, years of conflict, poverty, porous borders, and high terrorist activity make Afghanistan extremely dangerous. The country is also home to drug traffickers and mercenaries trafficking guns across the region.

Yemen is off-limits to US tourists because of “terrorism, civil unrest, crime, health risks, kidnapping, armed conflict, and landmines.” The United States closed its Embassy in 2015, and has not re-opened due to the humanitarian crisis, the ongoing civil war, and high criminal activity. The country is facing a devastating food shortage, and the Israel-Hamas war has re-ignited the conflict and threatened additional criminal activities.

Almost every country in the region carries a high risk, including Yemen, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, South Sudan, and Syria.

Asia-Pacific Region

Crime in Pakistan is fueled by the drug trade and terrorist activities. Terrorists in Pakistan – including Taliban groups that easily cross between Afghanistan and Pakistan – fund their activities with all types of criminal activities. Heroin produced in Afghanistan transits Pakistan and goes through small ports to the rest of the world.

Papua New Guinea suffers from a myriad of criminal issues. There are a large number of armed gangs, some motivated by tribal conflict and some are thugs without other motivation. After tribal gangs killed 70 people last August, the government announced it would use lethal force to stop the violence, but it has failed to have any impact. The country continues to experience high rates of robbery, assault, murder, rape, and kidnapping.

Arm Yourself with Knowledge

Every region, every country, every city has some level of crime and risk. Understanding that risk and taking action to protect yourself is critical to maintaining operations.

Ignoring the danger, or listening to uninformed sources who “know all about that country” can lead to serious disruptions that could be avoided with objective, informed intelligence to help you make the right decisions and to identify escalating criminal trends that require a pivot or an evacuation.

The post Global Crime: Awareness, Preparedness in the Face of Rising Criminal Activity appeared first on CTC International.

The government shutdown has been averted for 45 days.  But instead of sitting back and waiting for the next ball to drop, smart investors are preparing for what’s ahead.

If there is a shutdown, any business that deals with employees of the USG or that operates in areas heavily populated by government employees – military bases, NASA facilities, civilian operations – will see immediate impact. Restaurants, retail operators, day care facilities, dog walkers, and others in those areas will face immediate hurt as government employees brace for a potential shut down. Government employees are already saving pennies in anticipation of weeks, or months, without a paycheck.

Even outside those bubbles, there will be impact. If you think a shut down won’t hurt because you aren’t a government employee, you need to think again. 

Small businesses are at risk. The White House warned that Small Businesses will face hardship if the Federal Government shuts down, saying  it would cause would have “devastating consequences for small businesses and needlessly undermine America’s economic progress.” The White House estimates small businesses would lose access to $100 million in loans per day if the government stops working.

That will have its own ripple effect, curbing hiring and spending by small businesses.

Additionally, small businesses with exposure to the US Government will face delays in processing payments and delivering products and services.

There is also risk to the average consumer.

Food inspections and hazardous waste inspections may stop, raising the risk to the public. The Center for Science in the Public Interest (CSPI) warns that routine inspections by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration will stop, “escalating the chances of food contamination or other hazards impacting public health” and urges the government to come to an agreement to avoid risks to US consumers.

Air travel may also face problems. CNN noted that while air traffic controlers and TSA employees are technically “essential” and will continue working, they will not get paid until after the impasse is resolved. That raises the risk of “calling out” because employees are working but not receiving pay, which happened during the 2018 shutdown. Lack of workers will cause long delays and will cost the travel industry as much as $140 million per day.

Rather than wait for the shutdown, businesses can take the opportunity now to gather strategic intelligence to examine supply chains, customer base, expenses, and other areas with exposure to the government or government employees and try to shift or diversify before the crisis hits.

If businesses wait until the shut down is a reality, they are too late. It will no longer be possible to pivot if the shutdown is a reality.

And remember, “never waste a crisis.” For companies looking for a competitive advantage, the crisis is likely to hit cash-strapped or single-customer companies harder than others. This could create acquisition prospects that previously would not have considered selling.

Like all things, the key is having accurate data to make decisions, and to know information before an event happens.

The post Strategic Intelligence Can Give Businesses a Competitive Advantage During a Government Shutdown appeared first on CTC International.

Corporations that rely on lawyers and accountants to conduct due diligence after engaging an
acquisition target are acting too late. Intelligence helps identify opportunities and risks and
provides in-depth information to help make decisions about pricing, timing, quality, and other
issues critical to making a purchase.

The time to engage an intelligence firm is before you pick your acquisition target. The best
opportunities are often the ones you don’t know about. Intelligence firms can help identify the
full gamut of possibilities globally and give options to prospective buyers that they may not even
know exist. Whether a company is looking for an established business with a strong customer
base to increase market share or distribute inventory or whether a company is seeking a premier
manufacturer of a complimentary product to increase capabilities, a global intelligence firm can
help find strong candidates to consider purchasing.

Once a buyer finds an appropriate target, they need to understand the true capabilities of the firm,
the underlying problems, risks from acquisition, the motivation to sell, and other data points that
will sway both the sale and the sale price. Traditional due diligence provides a partial picture of
the firm, but what is the data room hiding? Environmental issues, investigations that have not yet
resulted in litigation, reputational risks, and capabilities all impact the benefits of the investment
as well as the true price a target will accept. Knowing the issues before purchase will help avoid
overpaying and can help sidestep potentially catastrophic issues beneath the surface. They can
also highlight unpolished gems.

Experienced global intelligence firms are a critical part of any acquisition strategy, and can
provide the data to identify the best target at the best price and to help avoid major missteps that
undermine a successful acquisition.

The post The Value of Intelligence for Acquisitions appeared first on CTC International.

As the UAW strike painfully illustrates, strikes are expensive.

According to Investors Business Daily, the economic losses from the UAW strike exceeded $1.6 billion in the first week alone. And no one avoids impact. Companies lost $511 million; auto workers lost wages of $107 million and consumers and dealers lost $470 million.

As the strike widens, the impact widens too. Parts distributors, machining companies, suppliers, retailers, and many other sectors will feel pain at the same time they are dealing with inflation, a possible government shut down, and soaring oil and gas prices.

Using targeted intelligence to understand the dynamics behind the strike and identifying the individuals most likely to hear the advantages of reaching a deal – on both sides – can help tame rhetoric and assist in reaching an agreement sooner, and possibly before it escalates to a strike.

Intelligence can also help identify the best method for delivering the message to all players and crafting clear information. Is social media the best platform – and if so, which social media outlet? Or, are mailers, face-to-face meetings, or emails more effective?

Pre-emptive intelligence can also gauge the true willingness of both sides to reach a settlement and avoid shut down.

Without intelligence, all parties are at the whim of agenda-driven commentators or rumor, which substantially dampens the prospects for resolution.

Understanding the true issues; identifying areas of common ground; finding leaders interested in resolution; using correct communication channels; and crafting accurate messaging are all benefits of using intelligence to avoid, or end, a strike.

The post Unions, Strikes, and Intelligence appeared first on CTC International.